People have been making bearish calls for years!
So people have been making bearish calls all the way up to the Top for the last 7 years. Many wall street Guru's have been making bearish calls consistently and often because it is easy to be a bear and doubt that good things can happen! But at the same time the market keeps trudging higher. I believe I would take the opposite side of the bears as we are actually at a point where economic conditions are getting better. We had a solid payroll number last week. We had solid PMI'S (MANUFACTURING INDEX)not just in the U.S. but also in China and across Europe. We are growing more positively that this is the time you want to be invested in the market's. Also, the earnings outlook and trajectory looks solid and is improving.We believe that the bar is to low for earnings expectations of 5-6 percent growth on a year over year basis. I actually think you want to be buying stocks. I believe that the bears will be proven wrong once again. The current back drop conditions for equities remains positive near-term and the fundamentals are improving. In addition the Transports have been very strong the last few months and does not give up an inch on a down day. Wall street Guru's are saying that the economy may have peaked a few months ago,but we do not believe this train of thought at all . I also think that people are saying such things because the economic data has slowed relative to the very optimistic expectations that were set early in the year with the Trump Agenda. Which was predicated on Fiscal stimulus coming at the mid-point of this year. We did not get the fiscal stimulus so far this year. But, what we are getting instead is very consistent, gradually improving economic data points and it's hard to argue withthe fact that the data is very robust. Even in the absence of Fiscal stimulus policies from the Trump administration that people were expecting!When you look at the first-quarter earnings results they came in at 12% higher on a year over year basis. Taking that into account current earnings estimates for the second quarter are for 5-6% growth year over year . I believe that current estimates are way too low relative to the strength we are seeing in the underlying economy. In addition, I want to state that this will be the 3rd consecutive quarter for positive year over year earnings growth for the first time since 2011. With all of that said statistically this is not the time to be selling stocks. Also, by the way if the U.S. economy is growing 1.8% or 2.4% economic growth, the S&P500 earnings are not the point because 60 percent of the earning and 65 percent of the revenues are derived from oversea's. In fact Europe has a chance to out grow us this year. So you my want to look at the bigger picture of the worldwide optic's and not just the U.S. jobs report.Lastly, there are several scenario's that could break the market to the downside which everyone is concerned about. But, there IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MARKET MELTUP which could happen if Healthcarereform is enacted, Tax reform, and a focus on infrastructure spending. Needless to say the last few items healthcare, taxes, and infrastructure spending are not priced into the stock market at all.Our market call is to stay with or invest in Tech, Healthcare,consumer staples, and information Tech/payment processing.Thank you,John C. Verducci 111