Is apple's 4 day losing streak about to be over and can the new I-phone take the stock higher?

Is apple the key for the market? Well I think it's going to go higher. There are a lot of reasons for it and I believe the biggest one is that your coming into the holiday season. It has been a good economy, job growth is very good, wage gains are picking up and people can afford to buy these much higher priced I-phones than they were two years ago. And they are much higher priced and so the key here to me is the much higher selling price. So you have a form factor change on one the new I-phones so you could have a much better replacement story. I think we always talk about the services revenues being a big-part of the story, but now you are seeing D-ram and Nam prices that are declining hard whichwill lower Apple's cost structure because chip prices are 30% of their cost. So you could see better pricing on the Phones and better costs because of lower chip prices which will lead to higher profit margin upside and higher revenues.More broadly I think what you have seen more recently is a rotation from growth to value in the market. We have seen it pretty meaningfully in the last week or two. And I love to see that because that indicates to me a broader health in the market. But it has been so short lived, if you blinked you could have missed it. I'm not saying we are sellers of Tech, I just think you have to pay attention to the performance year to date and you have to be mindful of the multiple expansion are seeing. You also have to be mindful of the fact that a lot of value buyers came in and bought these types of names and Apple being prominent of these value names. I think now with the interest rates moving higher and energy prices moving higher you are starting to see a rotation into some of these other sectors. I think that can be really healthy and frankly I would be worried if I did not see it. Because otherwise it would be the same investors buying the same companies and hiding out in the Tech sector.Just to let you growth stocks trade at a 12% premium and value stocks trade at a 6% discount to their historical averages. In case you are wondering that is a 35% disconnect from a historical perspective in pricing. I would just like to see some broadening out and not sellers of Technology stocks though.I think that now is a time to be less aggressive and the way we are being less aggressive for our clients is by rebalancing to your strategic allocation. We have just come through an enormously strong earnings period where markets where focused on the micro view. Now we are moving into a period where we will be focusing on the macro in which you have present U.S. dollar strength, Emerging market currency weakness, further trade talks, higher oil prices, and all of these things are working their way into the narrative and there is a risk of volatility and not a risk of recession. I would use that type of volatility as an opportunity to add to quality stocks. Be ready for that pullback if it happens. If we see a pullback of 3-6% pullback in the market depending upon the macro news of the day, I think you would want to be a buyer of the pullback. Because the underlying fundamentals of this economy and the underlying fundamentals of the consumer spending and businesses spending on cap expenditures are very strong.Our suggestions are to stay with select Tech, select healthcare, select energy, and select consumer stocks.Thank you have a great week,John C. Verducci 111

Previous
Previous

This is not a blog but it is something that I want First Responders to be aware of!

Next
Next

Are the market jitters outside of the United States about to upset the great American stock market?