The bulls break the ice again with energy and industrials leading the way!
Can the bulls keep rolling along as this January 2019 was one of the best January returns on record ever! In January the Russell 2000 was up 12%, the FANG stocks were up 16%, the nasdaq was up 10%, and the S&P500 was up 8%. There is this age old adage that goes this way as January goes so goes the rest of the year which has a 71% track record. We are encouraged by the sharp move we have seen in January,especially after we saw a sharp sell off in December. We think that this is a great time for investor'sto take a pause and to reevaluate where they sit and see where they want to go for the rest of the year. Because we think that volatility is going to be a key characteristic of the market this year.Another December can happen at anytime, but I do think we have changed the sentiment overall in the market place and what is interesting about it is that you have seen a healing in all the sectors within the stock market that the market was concerned about. You have seen the rise in oil, you also saw the high yield market have $34 billion dollar inflow in a month. Incidently, that was the highestdollar volume activity that the high yield market has experienced since 2005. But, certainly there has been a sentiment shift which is much better than we witnessed last quarter because thing were very oversold and people came to their senses.So myou cannot single out January and say this is what we did, it is not euphoria, it is far from euphoria just take a look at your December statement and think again. Do not forget you have had a significant large slowing in Europe, in China that added to the fears and then you also had some big concerns about earnings. With regards to the earnings outlook those concerns were absolutely correct.Where we had to reset earnings expectations much lower after a great 2018 earnings picture. So we are coming in ok on corporate earnings, but the market is now a stock pickers market for those who do lots of research as we discuss this all the time. I thought it was a market market in the past, but now it has definitely become a stock pickers market with winners and losers.Lastly, we were lucky because we went into the market buying the day after Christmas mainly because there was tremendous value present if you watch it all the time and you realize that there is a big sale! Mainly, because our firm speaks regularly with several different bond managers each week in Boston, New York, and New Jersey and what they tell us about the credit market usually will show up in the stock market. We bought very defensive names that were linked to energy, infrastructure, and bond funds for protection, and certain high yield equities and funds and we lucked out because we made our decision to re-enter early before everyone else did which was a gutsy move! We are now looking at healthcare names and funds, high yield plays both in bonds and in certain area's of the energy space and defensive value plays.Enclosing this will be my last blog that speaks about the weekly or monthly activity concerning the stock market!!! In the future the blog will become more about First Responders and their plans and about select topics that are of concern for helping those to who are interested in a better financial outcome by systematical making adjustments to making progress towards your retirement!!I am here to help First Responders who put their lives on the line everyday to reach a secure retirement and to watch your back!!Sincerely,John C. Verducci 111