So we did see quite a bit of optimism on friday with hopes of a trade deal!

It now looks like we see uncertainty creeping back into the market with the ongoing trade deal. How do you position your portfolio for the 4th quarter and beyond? What is playing out in the market's is exactly what we expected back in May 3,2019. First of all we think that a deal gets made. But it is going to be a long process these are not east issues, they are very complex.Secondly, we have to look past some of the rhetoric and take a closer look at the actions taking place. Namely are some of the tariffs removed. Finally we have to expect volatility! You have to have a realistic perspective with regards to the market, you should expect at least one 10 percent correction each year. We have not seen a correction this year so far. We are actually in a lower volatility state than usual. Secondly, we do not expect a recession in the U.S. or globally. We know that growth will continue but only at a slower pace. News of a slowndown in growth should not come as a surprise! The boost the tax cuts are starting to fad. So growth in the U.S and the rest of the world is starting to slow down. Actually the IMF just reduced it's growth forecast last week 3.80% to 3.00% globally for 2020.So finally where should you position yourself, the best thing to do for an individual investor is to just stay in position. Because historical evidence suggests that the final 2 years of a bull market is associated with large annual returns. So we are telling are clients to stay invested. But, make sure that you have enough bonds to help you get through the day to day up's anddowns and to ignore the daily headline risks.Given the backdrop not only of trade, but also the political environment that is entirely another issue. With an election around the corner how should investors be positioning themselves?Do not make your portfolio partisan in terms of asset-allocation. Even as we here more about impeachment inquiries, history teaches us a few lessons, stock markets have returned about 10%annually regardless of which political party was in office over a long period of time. Secondly, what is important is that politics matters but remember they are unpredictable. We have had only two instances of an impeachment process, like the one being contemplated now. In both the case of Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton in both cases what was shown was that the economic fundamentals mattered more than the politics. So right now we have a pretty solid economy and we think that trend continues despite Washington's impeachment processes.So the economy is still holding up well even with the headlines of slowing growth, the underlying growth is still there. We still believe it all goes back to the consumer. We have witnessed the consumer be resilient over the last 10 years of this economic expansion that still continues. But, we are worried about slowing global growth , and the next installment of tariff's. Wedo think that there is rising risks as long as the consumer stays strong we can stay positive in our outlook for the economy. With that said let us see how investors should be positioning there portfolio's in terms of asset-classes they should be considering. Well we are in the late-stages of the bull market, we are taking the approach that you should position yourself for more volatility. So even as we are neutral on equities overall, we believe that fixed income plays a role in cushioning a more bumpy road ahead. Trade is definitely a catalyst, we have seen companies pullback because of trade tensions and uncertainty with regards to capex spending as corporate america does not know always where to invest. We have seen a disruption in supply chains around the world. This has been a very disruptive part of the global economy and a trade between the U.S. and China not only benefits both countries, but it will also benefit the rest of the world as well.Thank You,John C. Verducci 111