Stocks falling sharply with more trade tensions with China and growing fears of a slowing U.S. economy!

Well I think that somebody from the SEC should explain why they have sat back calmly and quietly without saying anything and allowing these algorithmic trend following models to reek havic on the best capital market in the world. This volatility is destroying confidence, it is like the wild wild west environment in the stock market. What I know from over three decades of investing, bear markets donot materialize out of immaculate conception. They come about from certain fundamental reasons that the stock market is seeing. The number one cause of bear markets is the stock market smelling an oncoming recession. I will not sight all the economic data but there is no signs of a recession. The ADP employment flash employment number is growing, the economy is growing but is it going to grow at a slower rate next year than this year. Yes, it probably slow next year to 2.5% growth.Number two inflation is another cause of a recession and inflation is moderating and is now below the Federal reserves inflation target. The third cause of a recession is a hostile Federal reserve. If anything the Fed has been too easy and the level of interest rates is totally non-competitive to the stock market from a historical context. The 10-yr note is currently 2.87%. In the last 50 years the S&P500 had an average multiple of 15 during that same time period the 10 year note average 5-6%. Compared to historical context and also comparing the 10-yr note to the stock market relative to interest rates the stock market is a bargain.Earnings for 2019 will be growing in the 6-8 percent range next year and the price/earnings ratio is very reasonable. This is a quote from John Templeton "Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, mature in optimism, and die in Euphoria! Where is there any Euphoria present? Everyone is looking over their shoulder worried about different things and so I would be buying my favorite stocks gradually here. I know what the issues are we have extended profit margins, we have a debt problem but I do not know when that hits and we have an unconventional white house that destabilizes people periodically.In 1987, we had portfolio insurance and I lived through a time when the market dropped 22% percent in a day, everyone was yelling recession and yet there was no effect on the economy. The market reset itself in a day on valuations and 12 months later we were back to the highs again. People are less involved in the stock market today than they were in 1987 and the market is down 10% from the high, this is just a correction for the market. There is no sign of a trend change. But if you want to hypothesize we are going into a recession, sure we all could be wrong and we will not earn $172 in S&P500 earnings. We will earn 20-25% less but there are no signs of that. These trend followers exasperate the moves basically buying in an up market and selling in a down market and that creates more volatility in the moves. My position is based upon no recession, inflation is not a problem, the Fed is far from hostile, and bonds are not competitive with stocks because earnings are growing and employment is growing.Today the 10-year is at 2.87% but I believe it is a very complex situation if you check out a screen with bonds around the world in Germany the 10-yr is .38%, in Italy it's 3.0% with issues, Spain is 1.5%, Sweden is .40%, and in Japan the 10yr is .70% . So I believe these low interest rates yields around the world are distorting our interest rates.China there is no question people are nervous if China wants to sell their goods to us they are going to have to except monetary liability it's a closed circular system. It's not in anyone's interest to push us into recession and create social unrest. Part of this whole move to the left is the unequal sharing of economic prosperity. The Fed wants economic growth and they want growing employment. So you have to assume that monetary policy and fiscal policy in addition to governmental social policies are going to be designed to promote economic growth.So, what I think has a lot to do with the mechanics of the market, technology has overpowered the Market's ability to deal with it!! I have seen and lived through various different markets since 1982, but at the end of the day 2.87% on the 10yr note in a growing economy and a p/e of 15 I would buy stocks. I would change my mind if I thought what was going on in the economy would dip us into recession. Similarly now we are down 10% from the high, we are moving things faster now because of Algorithmic trading. But basically it's a 10% correction which is long overdue. It's painful for surebut I'm more concerned that there scaring the heck out of the public. Honestly, I just don't understand these program trading models which exaggerate the moves in the market.I HAD A LOT TO SAY - FinallyCommon sense will eventually suggest that the regulators have to focus their attention on what the new Technology is doing to the market, the volatility it's creating because it is now over 50% or more of all transactions up from 10% I believe 10 years ago. You saw it in January when everyone marked up their expectations, you also saw it in Febuary when everyone market down their expectations for the year. Then you saw it again in October, but you have to keep your head or wites about you when everyone else is losing theirs. My conclusion is suggesting we are near a low, after going up and down and nowhere the fundamentals are good and the economy is growing , it will be volatile but if you have been in the market before QE this used to be a yearly thing.Thank you,John C. Verducci 111

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The china question is news on trade detent good enough for bulls to hang there hat on it?

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